It’s fashionable these days for pollsters (and other assorted pundits) to focus on the polarization of American politics. And, to be sure, the current political spectrum could hardly be more “fringy” than it is today.
Still, there is a sliver of the electorate (which varies in size from state to state) that may be more consequential than ever before. I give you the vastly underappreciated: Undecided Voter. In a couple of weeks, this neglected sub-species of American politics could decide the gubernatorial races in Virginia (about 8% undecided) and New Jersey (about 7% undecided)—two heavily “blue” states. Some polls are showing that undecideds are breaking 60%-40% in favor of the Republican candidates in these races—which would essentially make both “toss-up” contests.
In the larger picture, these two races are being viewed as harbingers of the 2022 and 2024 election cycles. That’s probably somewhat overstated—a lot will happen between now and those national elections. Still, it might be prudent for strategists in both parties to figure out the wants, needs and desires of these undecided voters—many of whom are independents who’ve been largely ignored. They may be small in number, but they just might provide the ‘silver bullet’ that can deliver victory in our polarized world.