The Thermostatic Model Wins Again

Virginia and New Jersey are the latest examples

In 1999, Christopher Wlezien introduced the political theory that the public is like a thermostat—when government activism and spending increases, the public can view those policies as “too hot” and pull back in an electoral setting. Others have suggested that as policies become more liberal, there’s an even more conservative change in voter mood. One could argue that the $3.5 trillion social spending proposals of congressional Democrats may have triggered such a “thermostatic” response in the electorate—with the gubernatorial elections in Virginia (a win for Republicans) and New Jersey (still too close to call) being the prime examples.

Of course, this thermostatic response has worked in the other direction as well. After both the Eisenhower and Reagan administrations, the country clearly moved to a more liberal position. The common denominator has always been government activism—be it increased social spending by the left or increased military spending by the right. Americans are, by nature, suspicious of an over-active government—it’s literally in our political DNA. The Constitution is basically a primer on how to limit government action and protect citizens from overly zealous leaders.

And so, the 2021 elections offer us yet another example of how this thermostatic pendulum can swing the public mood away from the prevailing policy environment. Whether you’re on the left, the right or in the middle, this may be the most positive feature of our political culture.